Publication

Fertility rates in developed countries have declined to historically low levels, yet the reasons remain incompletely understood. This study examines the relative importance of diverse macro contextual constraints on childbearing intentions among young adults (aged 20–35) in Poland, a country emblematic of Europe’s fertility decline. Using a factorial survey design (N = 1,337), we compare how the availability of stable and gainful employment, opportunities to purchase a dwelling, access to childcare, the overall level of men’s involvement in domestic work, climate change prospects, and access to abortion shape the decision to have a first or second child. Results confirm the enduring salience of economic security—both employment and housing—for fertility intentions across gender and parenthood status. Access to abortion rights emerges as the most influential factor for childless women and a significant consideration for mothers and partnered men. Access to childcare and overall men’s involvement in the domestic sphere positively influence women’s intentions but matter less for men, particularly those single and childless. Climate concerns are comparatively less influential. Men’s intentions appear less responsive overall. Findings highlight the interplay of institutions and gender norms, and the limits of pro-natalist policies that neglect reproductive autonomy and gender equality.